Hi Martin,
the statement about dark shins in
atlantis is not from Malling Olsen but from the Dubois paper (Birding World 14:7, 2001).
The exact wording (also posted at
http://gull-research.org/atlantis/1cyoct.html) was:
"
All the juveniles I checked on the Azores and on the Canary Islands showed extensive dark markings on the front of the tarsi and on the feet. ]uveniles and first-winters in Madeira apparently show a similar pattern (S. Nicolle, pers. com.). Nominate michahellis juveniles may show such dark markings less commonly, and they seem to be more quickly lost in other species such as Herring Gull and Lesser Black-backed Gull. Interestingly, this feature occurs on Kelp Gull L. dominicanus too (Higgins & Davies 1996)."
So Dubois's choice of words was actually quite cautious, but the subtle connotations seem to have been lost when we quickly tried to repeat and summarize this at
http://gull-research.org/atlantis/1cysept.html,
leading to a very black and white statement that is simply wrong and that we have to change (Mars? Hello?).
So thanks for pointing it out.
I think we all know that pretty much all recently fledged juvenile large gulls may show dark shins.
It is true though that
on average species like
michahellis, European HG and American HG
tend to lose them a bit more quickly than
atlantis and Lesser Black-backed Gull,
but I doubt that anyone has seriously looked into this yet, and, in any case, it is certainly variable and does not appear to be the failsafe character that you may be looking for.
If you want to take 'herring gulls' as an example, the very first photograph of a 1st-cycle European HG on my website already shows a bird with distinctly dark shins, yet was taken in May (17 May 2009)!
https://plus.google.com/photos/11565979 ... 0435170210
In Newfoundland in late January, it was clear that quite a few 1c American Herring Gull still showed slight presence of dark shins, though fading.
See the photo below for an example.
It does not take much digging around to see that dark shins are quite normal in 1c Lesser Black-backed Gull throughout the winter.
There is at least one example of a bird from April on the GRO website:
http://gull-research.org/lbbg2cya/107kred.html
To put it this way, dark shins may be useful as an identification character if you are faced with a flock of 100 gulls of a single species and you only get to see the legs for some reason...
On a single bird, I doubt that it means much.